← ethraeon.systems

VALUATION SUMMARY

ETHRAEON -- Dual-Layer Valuation Structure

Directive 0678T5-RIGID PROTECTEDAC-1 Authority
VALUATION PROTECTION (Directive 0080) -- Valuation is a protected semantic domain under T5-RIGID governance. Dual-layer structure is immutable. Layers cannot be merged, simplified, or reinterpreted. Value can only increase by evidence. Any ambiguity triggers FAIL-CLOSED.

Dual-Layer Structure

ETHRAEON valuation operates on two distinct, non-mergeable layers:

Layer A -- Transaction

Range €2.5M -- €40M
Purpose SAFE instruments, auditor-facing, deals
Audience Investors, advisors, transaction counterparties
Governance Evidence-backed, promotion-only

Layer B -- Canonical

Range €267M -- €750M+
Purpose Strategic buyer, M&A, full-stack valuation
Audience Strategic acquirers, institutional due diligence
Governance Constitutional, immutable, AC-1 override only

Valuation Drivers

Driver Evidence
60 patent applications (15 filed with USPTO receipts, 45 queued for filing) patents/INDEX.md
9 operational core systems app/ directory -- live code
35+ verified live surfaces Directive 0678 subdomain sweep
678 sealed directives evidence/ chain + receipts
T5-RIGID governance (highest tier) canon/CONSTITUTION.md
SaaS scaffold (4 tiers, RBAC) saas/ directory
22 CI/CD workflows .github/workflows/
Append-only evidence chain evidence/chain.jsonl

Rules

Verification

All valuation claims are source-derived and map to committed artifacts in the repository. The evidence chain is cryptographically linked and append-only. IP reconciliation verified in Directive 0676 (15 receipts checked, 3 corrections applied).

Verified Platform Metrics

Signal Intelligence -- Macro Environment

46-payload CDASA synthesis. 7 macro domains. Real-time strategic positioning.

Inference Dependency Risk

0.92

Token price volatility structurally underpriced. Subsidy exposure systemic. Open-source pressure accelerating.

Cluster: AI Cost Structure | Severity: HIGH

Billable Hour Collapse

0.88

Agency margin compression severe. Value migration: execution judgment/strategy.

Cluster: Labor Model Disruption | Severity: HIGH

Value Migration to Judgment

0.84

AI not destroying value -- redistributing it violently. From execution/labor/thin SaaS to infrastructure control/judgment layers.

Cluster: Strategic Outcome | Severity: HIGH

AI Subsidy Dependence

0.91

AI startup fragility elevated. Margin sensitivity at 10× = lethal for 70%. Vertical AI exposure extreme.

Cluster: Capital Markets | Severity: CRITICAL

Political Counterforce

0.63

Bipartisan AI pushback rising. Regulatory surface area expanding. Compliance cost curve steepening.

Cluster: Governance Layer | Severity: RISING

Open-Source Hedge

0.77

AI winter discourse increasing. Bubble language frequency rising. Correction probability nonzero and underpriced.

Cluster: Narrative Layer | Severity: MODERATE

Risk Temperature Matrix

Vertical AI SaaS -- RED / HIGH
Agency Labor Models -- RED / HIGH
AI Infrastructure -- GREEN / ADVANTAGE
Enterprise AI Embedding -- YELLOW / COMPETITIVE
Governance Exposure -- ORANGE / RISING

Capital Thesis 2026+

Winners own inference stack, own distribution, own customer relationship, high-margin enterprise value.

Losers are API wrappers, thin prompt layers, low-margin vertical SaaS with token exposure.

Rule: Gross margin < 60% in AI = danger zone.

"AI is not destroying value. It is redistributing it violently."

Source: CDASA 46-payload synthesis | Directive 0682